Seharusnya engkau dapat belajar dengan jiwa engkau sendiri
Itulah yang dikatakan fitrah semulajadi
Ilmu Islam hanya menguatkan saja
Fitrah semulajadi manusia sama saja
Apa yang dimaksudkan dapat belajar dengan jiwa atau perasaan sendiri?
Iaitu jiwa kita kan suka dikasihi orang lain....??
Begitulah jg perasaan orang lain
Sepatutnya kita bisa memberi kasih sayang kepada orang lain pula
Jiwa kita kan suka dibantu terutama di waktu kesusahan... ??
Mengapa kita tidak suka membantu orang seperti kita suka dibantu?
Jiwa kita terhibur kalau ada ilmu, kekayaan dan lain-lain kesenangan
Semestinya kita rasa terhibur dengan keistimewaan orang lain
Sepertimana yang kita rasa dan suka
Cukuplah itu sebagai contoh
Jadi manusia boleh belajar dengan jiwa dan perasaan sendiri
Cuma ilmu Islam datang menyuburkan saja atau menguatkan saja
Namun demikian tidak ramai orang dapat belajar dengan jiwa sendiri
Kerana itulah peri kemanusiaan sudah hilang, bertimbang rasa dengan manusia sudah gersang
Kehendak jiwa sendiri tidak dapat diapplykan kepada orang lain
Sepertimana orang lain juga tidak dapat lakukan kepada kita
Kerana masing-masing terlalu mementingkan diri
Cintakan Tuhan sudah hilang dari jiwa manusia
Akibatnya cinta sesama manusia kering kerontang... .
Pelabur yang menceburi perdagangan forex mempunyai peluang untuk menggandakan wangnya, tetapi ia juga berisiko untuk kehilangan keuntungan pada masa depan. Penyimpangan daripada purata keuntungan, menentukan risiko pelabur di pasaran kewangan. Penyimpangan ini boleh mendatangkan keuntungan yang tinggi dan kerugian besar. Pengurusan risiko kewangan yang baik tidak bermakna perniagaan anda berjaya, tetapi pengaruh pengurusan risiko ialah besar. Setiap transaksi matawang mempunyai risiko, oleh kerana itu, adalah mungkin untuk mengurangkan potensi kerugian dengan menerapkan kaedah umum pengurusan risiko: Kaedah pengurusan risiko dilaksanakan selepas kedudukan dibuka. Pengurusan risiko yang utama ialah keputusan anda untuk membuat arahan bagi mengurangkan kerugian. Stop-loss adalah satu point bagi trader untuk mengelakkan situasi yang tidak menguntungkan. Ketika membuka posisi lebih baik untuk menggunakan stop-loss untuk menjamin anda dari mengalami kerugian yang lebih lagi. Ada beberapa jenis stop-signals
Setiap trader yang berurusniaga dengan forex harus mampu menguruskan modal dengan betul, mengira jumlah wang yang terlibat dalam kesepakatan untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang mencukupi; dan tidak kerugian dan kehilangan semua wang yang disimpan. Untuk tujuan ini berikut ialah kaedah khusus untuk menguruskan wang anda: Selepas memilih salah satu atau kaedah lain pengurusan wang untuk trading, anda akan dapat menggunakan wang anda secara rasional, dan itu akan membawa keuntungan. Kaedah pengurusan wang diterapkan sebelum membuka posisi.
Teori pengetahuan dan pengalaman amat diperlukan dalam rangka untuk mendapatkan keuntungan pada setiap pasaran kewangan. Pengalaman ini merangkumi: Analisis fundamental membolehkan anda menentukan nilai pertukaran matawang yang berbeza dalam situasi ekonomi negara; menjelaskan tujuan dan dasar instrumen kewangan bank Pusat; dan mendedahkan kadar pasaran kewangan yang berbeza, alasan-alasan bagi perkembangan mereka dan stagnasi. Analisis fundamental digunakan analisis jangka pertengahan dan jangka panjang, ianya menilai perspektif pasaran. Hal ini terbina di atas dasar faktor-faktor ekonomi yang saling berkaitan. Kesulitan terbesar terletak pada kenyataan bahawa perubahan dalam salah satu faktor yang boleh mempengaruhi semua yang lain, jumlah yang bervariasi 20-50 bergantung pada negara. Itu sebabnya analisa fundamental tidak digunakan oleh semua orang. Hanya 10-20% daripada trader menerapkannya dalam amalan mereka. Analisis teknikal meliputi pemeriksaan diagram harga, rekod harga, dan jumlah perubahan dalam kutipan dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Ini sangat mudah untuk digunakan kerana data tentang harga-harga sudah tersedia. Analisis teknikal memberikan maklumat tentang aktiviti pasaran dan hanya kondisional tentang kelantangan pasaran dipertimbangkan dalam tempoh masa yang singkat yang disebut time-frames. Pengurusan wang dan risiko adalah ketiga dan merupakan aspek terpenting dalam sistem perdagangan. Operasi kewangan tentang Forex sangat berisiko, dan semakin tinggi keuntungan semakin tinggi risiko. Anda seharusnya mengikuti semua peraturan pengurusan risiko wang dan ianya dapat membantu mengurangkan kerugian dan meningkatkan keuntungan. Wang dan pengurusan risiko muncul pada abad ke-18, ketika diterapkan dalam perjudian untuk meningkatkan peluang untuk menang. Trader berpengalaman mengikuti strategi mereka sendiri, mengalami kerugian pada awalan untuk menikmati keuntungan kemudian. Berurusniaga di pasaran kewangan mirip dengan perjudian kerana keuntungan dan kerugian yang tidak dapat diprediksi. Itu sebabnya wang dan prinsip-prinsip pengurusan risiko mula digunakan dalam bidang kewangan. Sering terjadi bahawa trader baru tidak mengambil wang dan aspek pengurusan risiko serius tetapi kesalahan ini boleh mengakibatkan kegagalan walaupun dengan strategi perdagangan yang baik. Bukan hanya jumlah wang yang diterima penting dalam perdagangan; jumlah kerugian selama berdagang menambah sukses juga. Itu sebabnya dianjurkan untuk menghitung risiko perdagangan modal untuk berjaya.
Agak rumit bagi trader baru untuk mengetahui bagaimana membuat wang di Forex, kami menawarkan contoh ini: Anda percaya bahawa Euro akan meningkat nilainya berbanding US Dollar (EURUSD). Dalam akaun anda mempunyai 2000 USD (eGlobal-standard). Anda membeli 150,000 Euro pada harga 1.2750 150.000*1.2750 = 191.250 USD. Ini tidak mustahil kerana kredit, yang memungkinkan anda untuk melakukan transaksi bernilai 100 kali lebih daripada dana yang anda miliki dalam akaun anda (dalam kes khusus ini, jumlah maksimum yang sedia untuk transaksi adalah 2000*100 = 200,000 USD). Selepas tempoh waktu tertentu, kadar pertukaran telah meningkat. Anda menjual 150,000 Euro pada nilai 1.2850 dan mendapatkan 150,000*1.2850 = 192.750 USD. Jadi, selepas membeli pada tahap yang rendah dan menjual pada nilai yang tinggi, perbezaan 192,750 - 191,250 = 1500 $ adalah keuntungan anda. Anda telah menerima 75% daripada dana awal dalam akaun anda, sementara angka meningkat sebesar 0.8%. Cara lain untuk menghasilkan keuntungan di Forex didasarkan pada penurunan tingkat kutipan dari pasangan mata wang EURUSD: Setelah membuka akaun real dengan 200 USD di dalamnya (eGlobal-mini), anda menentukan batas atas dan bawah pada Euro ke Dolar dan menjual 15,000 Euro (0.15 lot) pada batas harga atas 1.2850 USD (harga belian) untuk 1 Euro, yang sama dengan 19,275 USD (15,000 Euro didarabkan dengan kadar 1.2850). Anda mempunyai dana USD di dalam akaun anda, tetapi anda boleh menjual Euro dengan menggunakan sistem pinjaman automatik. Oleh kerana itu, syarikat meminjamkan Euro sebanyak 15,000 kepada anda percuma, yang anda boleh menjual dengan menghantar permintaan penjualan. Kerana leverage, deposit yang sebenarnya adalah 100 kali lebih kecil daripada jumlah yang dijual: 15,000/100 = 150 euro. Pada kadar 1.2850 bersamaan dengan 192.75 USD. Bilangan ini akan menjadi deposit untuk kredit (marjinal) transaksi untuk akaun anda. Deposit maksimum yang mungkin dalam kes ini bersamaan dengan 200 USD. Kemudian pada siang hari harga turun ke batas bawah dan anda memutuskan untuk membeli kembali 15,000 Euro pada harga 1.2750 USD (Harga Jualan) untuk 1 Euro, yang bersamaan dengan 19,125 USD. Demikian, akibat penurunan kadar pertukaran yang berbeza antara jual dan beli, yang 19,275 - 19,125 = 150 USD. Anda berjaya mendapatkan 75% (150 dolar) daripada jumlah awal 200 USD kerana penurunan nilai 0,8% (1.2850-1.2750) hanya dalam jangkamasa satu hari. Syarikat mengenakan yuran dalam bentuk perbezaan antara harga jualan dan belian atau dipanggil juga spreads, yang dalam contoh ini adalah 3 USD (spreads bagi pair Eurodolar sama dengan 0.0002 atau 2 pips). Informasi lebih lengkap tentang terminologi ini dalam Glossary. Dalam contoh ini, spreads tidak terlalu dipertimbangkan saat menghitung perubahan nilai pertukaran kerana pengaruhnya yang tidak penting dalam keputusan. Dalam kes FX4U-cent atau FX4U-classic pengiraanya adalah sama dan yang membezakannya adalah cuma pada jenis matawang iaitu dalam US Cent dan US Dollar. transaksi yang dipaparkan memberikan keuntungan berturut-turut 75% +75% = 150%. Keuntungan yang konsisten dan besar boleh dicapai dengan menggunakan kaedah pengurusan wang yang sesuai. Kaedah pengurusan risiko juga memainkan peranan penting dalam perdagangan (read more).
(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part I) B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them. B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially. The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex. A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below. - Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland; - Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders; - using AO is similar to reading tomorrow's "Wall Street Journal", while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow's issue thereof; - by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one's broker and say: "Sell at the market price!". As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams's "New aspects of Exchange Trade". Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams's indicators may entail an abyss of losses. But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The "faultlessness" is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams's indicators. By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not. I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams's technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses). By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams's method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader's consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man's inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: "If You wanna get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!" Etc., etc., etc... Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams's followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros' trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let's continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading. - The "Theory of Chaos" of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue. - Trader's psychological problems. I haven't found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS. - The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages' elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn't noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex. Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams's "Trading Chaos": what's the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what's the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with minority? Doubtlessly, it's funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian. Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader's store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue. I have shortly come across an aphorism: "Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted there from". If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY? "An outstanding Forex trading techniques" and "a genius scholar", etc., making their appearance in books' abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge. Sale is publisher's primary target, giving birth to "genius" mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as "genius" with account to the above formula. He is rather "eccentric" than "genius". The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams's choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams's postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal. CONCLUSION: I guess, it's understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice. Much more respect-triggering is Warren Buffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Buffet is the world's second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Buffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to. The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Buffet's profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange. Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a "crise de genre" and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning Forex market. In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance: A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology. B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what's the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems. This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he's gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily "evaluate" the "outstanding contribution" made by each of Forex scholars. 4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark's "Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science" recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book's preface qualifies it to be "refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods". And thereinafter: "Demark's empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals." But, with having not disclosed his system's essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter "Why price projections may not go into effect": "...due to no technique being perfect". Good a science with "no technique being perfect"! Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd. In accordance to Demark, "a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered". I am itching to ask the scholar: "How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?" I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: "This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency". Well, I've got it. Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely. Take a look at the picture below: Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 - April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat. (See Note below) How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark's ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader's deposit be to survive Demark's experiments, being ranked "refined techniques" and "strictly scientific approaches", "cardinally different from others' ", less scientific ones, as I can guess. The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: "One oughtn't to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success". Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: "Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it's in no way helpful to You". Well, what's the use of buying the book at such price? Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book's objective to be "fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques". Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility. Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one's brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory. Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark's scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book. John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the "less art - more science" slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area. As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse. Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation... How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them: - B. Williams "Trading Chaos", "New aspects of Exchange Trading"; - J. Murphy "TA of Futures Markets" - S. Nisson "Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis" - A. Elder "Basics of Exchange Trading" - L. Williams. "Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade" - Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas "Computer Analysis of Futures Markets" - D. Swagger "TA, Comprehensive Course" Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex. By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels. One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer. The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment. I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams's; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks' impotent daily forecasts. But now let's move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios' anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement. For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow's postulates: - a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a currency pair to stand open for so a long period; - a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend; - a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency; - intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to. You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005. Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart. (See Note below) Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart. (See Note below) CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow's might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently. Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards. I guess there's no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading. By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body. I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries. It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex. GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one's native country's throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite. Note: Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/ If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/ Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V) Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_Vasilevich
It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:
Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven't done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).
BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one's originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.
... and hardly few more.
Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org
This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al. Following the burn down of their first deposit trader's plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners' mistakes. This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers... But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isn't because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June "Intraday trading: secrets of mastership". With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure. WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice. As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. It's them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life. I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden. With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many. By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch. AND WHAT'S NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage. Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws. Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people: - scrutinize the really great traders' heritage; - open accounts with Forex Broker's and banks, start trading and... - loose funds up to complete rout! AND WHERE'S THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself... There's something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results. STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following: 1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher. 2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing. 3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or naïve. Thus, once one's advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where one's books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER. Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are "confided" at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named "great". So, one's books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities. Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners. G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparov's being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time. Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners. At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit. And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic? I am recalling the book titled "The Alchemy of Finance" by G. Soros (the one I've read in early 90-s). I admit, it's interesting, instructive..., but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only. So what's the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording. 1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy. 2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a country's economy faces a natural recession. Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries' companies' shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? What's going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price? Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia. There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only? The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein. The theory is permeated by Soros's strategy: enter long on what's shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and "pull out" Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof. And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply "Yes!", indicating what exactly is to be added. Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below) The Alligator's jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts. Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below) Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts. With the Alligator's mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% - counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise..., You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williams's technique, let alone other ones. Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray..., even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligator's father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change? These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex. Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market. Let's open one of them (E. Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: Secret Files") to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100. You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: "Master-trading: Secret Files", 320 pages of sheer secrets... HOWEVER, I HAVEN'T FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself: 1. "The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics" being a detailed story of how a country's macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth. A "valuable" secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its country's economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue. 2. "Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof". The author furnishes a "wise" recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci). The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the author's; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results. Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a "lighter" MA has crossed a "heavier" one, say, upwards, but... thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again. Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below) A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders' losses. Now, let's call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages. 3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Nayman's: "a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values". Much of a secret, isn't it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasn't even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer. Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead. Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below) Another example: Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below) As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, we'll touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not. 4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of "head'n'shoulders" and "double bottom" patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex. And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below: Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical "inverted H&S" (See Note below) At 1.8871 there's an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up... nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts. To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Nayman's "Trader's Minor Encyclopedia" and "Master-trading: secret files" purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books. The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good "ABCs OF FOREX" thus giving birth to all Nayman's merits and demerits. The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners' paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Nayman's books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies. This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Nayman's books, then only it's worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing. Nevertheless, there is a chief Nayman's self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve one's Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman. But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the "Master-trading: Secret Files" fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably. Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers' staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers. With these facts being proclaimed, I don't hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature. There could be NO OTHER WAY about it. The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: "Trading Chaos" and "New aspects of exchange trading", where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones', viz. Elliott's. My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex. Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to. In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to; - to share A PORTION of his secrets in his "Trading Chaos"; - to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training; - not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least. My book, "Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders" is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities. B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that it's feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: "Ally and adversary currencies"). B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233. B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a "safety cushion", whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders. B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria. (See continuation of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part II) Note: Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/ If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/ Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V) Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_VasilevichForex Secret - Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit (Part I)
NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.
Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.
In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, let's at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).
You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries' cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:
This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with "tertium non datum".
I'll present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.
Another example.
Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?
Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.
Each of my book's 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.
Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.
Professional Trader from 2000 year.
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
Author of Books:
1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders.
2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V.
3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market
http://www.masterforex-v.su
http://www.masterforex-v.org
The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the state's economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news is superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability. This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit: FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis) So, what are these factors? FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of: Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency). Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something... among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer'/sellers' power absolute equilibrium point. The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor. With this scenario holding true - and it really does - we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance". Thomas Demark was more laconic in "Technical analysis - an emerging science": "Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, there's a price rally and if visa versa, there's a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles". Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent. In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the country's economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the country's economy condition as below: State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators - the faster the economic and the currency price growth); Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the country's securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the country's 30 leading companies. The country's interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the country's economy and hence into national currency strength. Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor. Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike. The country's gold and currency reserve assets. Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc. Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.) Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.) Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.) To be considered additionally are the country's political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement. Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally. Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline. In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates ("rumored trade"), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below; Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one; Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader? Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners. Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis. The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders' funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, http://www.forexite.com reads: "Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency"http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html. Comment: Have you ever met any book-makers; - whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders), - whose stakes were being made in accordance with THEIR technical analysts forecasts, economic laws and common sense? And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free "recommendations", "advice", "surveys" and "forecasts", laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts? As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that "All the economists share these underlying principles". Comment No.1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these "underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark" have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice? Comment No.2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money? FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity. Please, think over A. Elder words, that: "FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality". Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his trader's skill rating as per "Trading Chaos 2"): "On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the market's basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others' opinions. You needn't read "Wall Street Journal", watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels". Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous "Wall Street Journal", to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go. Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense. Below are some examples: Fig. 1. GBPUSD chart as of April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy. In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously). All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00. Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well... And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally. It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, - down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a "down" direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3). The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later. Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust. Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: "in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side". But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session? Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy... But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries' economy statistics. I wonder if I'll ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes. The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible? Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into one's head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way. Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. You'll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF. Another example: Fig.2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005. See Note below This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy: Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE - by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 - by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close) There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month. The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%. Below are other similar examples of that same day. Fig. 3. EURUSD chart as of May 13, 2005. See Note below Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above. Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book. Note: Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/ If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V - one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/ Professional Trader from 2000 year. Author of Books: 1. Trade secrets by a professional trader or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told about Forex to traders. 2. Technical analyses in Trading System MasterForex-V. 3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Vyacheslav_Vasilevich
Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the FOREX rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams ("Trading Chaos 2" Chapter 1 "The market is what you are thinking of it"):
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)
Conclusions:
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.
Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?
See Note below
President of Masterforex-V Trading Academy.
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